The main point to understand is that contract expirations are when the vast majority of strikes take place. If no contracts happen to expire during a particular time period, it’s pretty unlikely that many strikes will take place. It’s therefore important to look at upcoming contract expirations when attempting to chart the possible future course of the class struggle.
We should vigorously argue for class independence and for a labor party. But it does mean that we should recognize that we are working in a labor movement where most activists disagree with us. It would be better if it wasn’t that way, but it’s where things stand today.
Rafah is the only significant location in Gaza that has not yet endured a sustained attack by the IDF. The Israeli army has gained at least some ability to function in the rest of Gaza. Therefore, the attack on Rafah would be the culmination of this phase of the Israeli offensive. The countdown to the attack on Rafah forms the background to all other events surrounding the war.
For years now, the big majority of strikes occur when the old contract expires. No major national contracts have expired since November, so there simply have not been opportunities for new strikes. However, a number of major contracts are due to expire this year.
The Palestinian death toll currently stands at 28,858. We should expect that number to increase sharply in the near future. First, fighting in over-crowded Rafah will lead to a large number of civilian casualties. Secondly, deaths from non-combat causes such as hunger, disease, and exposure will begin to mount as people are forced to stay in subhuman living conditions for increasing periods of time.
At the time of writing, the Hamas leadership is considering the latest set of proposals. It’s very hard to read what’s really going on. There is any amount of political posturing coupled with diplomatic intrigue taking place. The significant role of espionage organizations in the negotiations only muddies the waters further.
The Israeli War Cabinet has a very clear objective for 2024, to evict as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza. In so doing, it will hope to take a major step towards its long term objective of creating a land free of Palestinians, “from the river to the sea”.
The current wave of Palestinian solidarity demonstrations is the biggest opportunity for rebuilding the revolutionary left in years. It’s no secret that the past decades have been cruel ones for the revolutionary left. Our organizations have divided and shrunk. The dissolution of the International Socialist Organization in this country and the bitter split of the New Anticapitalist Party in France are only the best known examples of our retreat.
Israel is now turning its attentions to the southern part of Gaza. Of course, this is the part of Gaza that the Israeli government urged Palestinians to flee to as a “safe zone”. Now the “safe zone” itself is under heavy attack. This fact alone decisively dashes any illusion that Israel has any concern whatsoever for “civilian casualties”.
The Israeli state wishes to use the current military campaign to make real progress in its long term project to remove all Palestinians from Gaza. It may well not succeed in immediately expelling every single current resident from Gaza; however, Tel Aviv could certainly make important strides towards that end.
The organizers of the current wave of Palestine demonstrations have put together a movement that is drawing in thousands of new young people; a movement that is effectively organized; a movement that is clearly focused on solidarity with Palestine; a movement that uses tactics and slogans that reach outward to new layers of potential support; and a movement that totally rejects antisemitism.
There’s no point in trying to prettify the picture. The situation in Gaza is dire. There is, however, one thing we can do. We can show the Palestinians that they are not alone, that there are hundreds of thousands across the world in solidarity with them. Taking to the streets in defense of the people of Gaza is the task of the hour.
Fain expressed his hope that the union’s victory will be, “a turning point in the class war that’s been raging in this country for the past 40 years.” The contracts are consciously timed to expire on April 30, 2028. This means that the next strike could be on May Day, the international day of workers solidarity. All this is new ground in the American labor movement.
The union leadership has called for the Ford workers to return to work as quickly as possible. The picket lines are down. It will take a little time for the skilled trades to get the line and machinery up and running again. But the union has called for a prompt return to work.
On October 17, the United Auto Workers’ strike passed its thirty-third day. There are three new points that should be focused on. They are the decision to strike Kentucky Truck, Bill Ford’s attempt to do an end-run around the union leadership, and the mounting repercussions of the strike.
