On November 30, the ceasefire ended with a vengeance. The purpose of this article is to discuss the new stage of the Israeli attack on Gaza.
What are Israel’s goals?
Current events can only be understood if they are placed in the context of overall Israeli strategy. The long term aim of Zionism is the removal of the Palestinians from all of “Eretz Israel”, “from the river to the sea”. October 7 provided the opportunity for a major step towards this goal. Therefore, the destruction of Hamas, revenge for Operation Al-Asqa Flood, and the creation of national unity to overcome domestic political problems are only secondary components of a broader strategy. The fundamental objective is the removal of as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza. This means that the war will be open-ended as Israel sees how far along this road they are able to proceed. Once this is understood, the infliction of massive Palestinian suffering can only be seen as a war goal, not a side-effect. The civilian deaths are part of a cohesive overall Israeli strategy to use the current war to create a massive new wave of Palestinian emigration.
Already, well over 16,000 Palestinians have been killed. Food, water, sanitation, housing, and heating have basically disappeared in Gaza. The tiny amount of supplies getting in through Rafah are just a drop in the ocean of what’s needed. The death of thousands by famine and disease is a real possibility.
This situation is not “collateral damage”. Collateral damage occurs when a negative event that you did not set out to accomplish occurs while you are implementing your main goals. The Israeli government wishes to create a disaster in Gaza in order to force the local population to leave Palestine altogether.
Current military situation
The contours of Israeli military strategy are now becoming clearer. Israel today occupies territory forming the shape of the letter “C” in northern Gaza. This is formed by a northern strip between the border and Gaza City, the coastal area west of Gaza City, and finally a strip going from the sea to the Israeli border just south of Gaza City. The city itself is surrounded by the Israeli Defense Force on the north, west, and south, and the border on the east.
The IDF has not yet stabilized the land that it has occupied. Palestinian resistance is far from eradicated. As of December 6, 82 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the fighting. Hamas’s important tunnel infrastructure appears to be largely intact.
Israel is now turning its attention to the southern part of Gaza. Of course, this is the part of Gaza that the Israeli government urged Palestinians to flee to as a “safe zone”. Now the “safe zone” itself is under heavy attack. This fact alone decisively dashes any illusion that Israel has any concern whatsoever for “civilian casualties”. Palestinians who have gone to exactly where Israel told them to go are today being killed there. The new Israeli expulsion orders call for refugees to move west from southern Gaza to a tiny coastal area. It’s obviously impossible for more than two million people to survive in that miniscule space.
Khan Yunis, the major city in the south, is today a central target of the Israeli offensive. Israeli soldiers entered the city on December 4 and heavy fighting is currently taking place there.
Repercussions of the war
There’s a famous Sherlock Holmes story, Silver Blaize. In this story, Holmes is able to deduce the identity of the murderer from the fact that the dog didn’t bark. Something that might have been expected to happen didn’t take place. What’s striking is what didn’t happen, not what did. The response of the Arab regimes is the dog that didn’t bark of the current war. These regimes are essentially silent, AWOL. In the past, the Arab governments have made all sorts of proclamations and saber rattling when Israel has attacked the Palestinians. Today, despite some talk, there has been virtually no response to the Israeli offensive. Tehran has talked tough, but made clear that it does not want an escalation of the war. Any illusions that the Arab governments would come to the aid of the Palestinians should now be laid to rest.
The situation in the West Bank continues to be at a boiling point. Settler lynch mobs continue to run amuck in the rural areas. IDF operations are a frequent occurrence in the towns. The latest death toll stands at 231 Palestinians killed either by the Israeli army or by settler gangs. The people of the West Bank know that if Israel is able to evict the Palestinians from Gaza they will eventually be next in line.
The situation inside of Israel is complicated. Normally there is a rallying round the flag and the leader during a war. There is certainly a rallying around the flag. In fact, in a recent poll 58% of Israelis say that the IDF is not using enough force in Gaza. Only 2% thought that too much force was being used. However, Netanyahu’s personal popularity is much lower. In another poll, only 27% of the Israelis polled believed that he is the best man to run the war. The recent round of news stories concerning multiple intelligence failures prior to October 7 will only increase this unpopularity.
Perspectives for the future
Making perspectives for the future is always a risky proposition, especially in a war. However, we got a major insight into the Israeli military’s perspectives from a recent Financial Times article. The article is titled, “Israel plans for ‘long war’ and aims to kill top three Hamas leaders.” It’s well worth quoting the article at length.
Israel is planning a campaign against Hamas that will stretch for a year or more, with the most intensive phase of the ground offensive continuing into early 2024, according to several people familiar with the preparations. The multiphase strategy envisages Israeli forces, who are garrisoned inside north Gaza, making an imminent push deep into the south of the besieged Palestinian enclave. The goals include killing the three top Hamas leaders — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa — while securing “a decisive” military victory against the group’s 24 battalions and underground tunnel network and destroying its “governing capability in Gaza”. “This will be a very long war . . . We’re currently not near halfway to achieving our objectives,” said one person familiar with the Israeli war plans. Israel’s overall strategy for Gaza is flexible, with timing dictated by multiple “clocks”, including operational progress on the ground, international pressure and opportunities to free Israeli hostages, the people said. A fragile week-long truce collapsed on Friday as Israel and Hamas resumed fighting, shattering a pause in hostilities that had enabled a mutual hostage-for-prisoner swap between the two sides. Israel said it was returning to battle to “eliminate Hamas”. The renewed high-intensity ground operation will probably require a few more months, taking it into the new year, the people familiar with the preparations estimated. “This isn’t going to be weeks,” said one person familiar with US-Israel discussions over the war. After that, there will be a “transition and stabilisation” phase of lower military intensity that could continue into late 2024, with the location of Israeli ground forces during this phase still unclear. Unlike previous Israeli military operations and wars, one Israeli official suggested there would not be a firm end point. “The referee won’t blow the whistle and it’s over,” they said.
There’s no reason to doubt that this is an accurate assessment of the IDF’s plans. The war looks set to continue for some time.
Building the solidarity movement
The present situation is certainly dire. But, one of the “clocks” that the Financial Times reported the Israeli government looking at is international pressure. This is where we come in. We are not just passive observers of Israeli ethnic cleansing. We have to show the Palestinian masses that they are not alone. We have to show the Israeli government that it is increasingly isolated and losing popular support around the world. Our demonstrations are the way to do that.
The depth and breadth of the Palestine solidarity demonstrations have been remarkable.
The mass solidarity movement has become one of the factors in the situation. That is the reason why the international movement has been subject to such official hostility and government repression.
Our task therefore is straightforward: to do everything in our power to build the new Palestine solidarity movement. If you want to find Marxists in the coming months, it will be easy to do so. We’ll be on the streets for Palestine!
Adam Shils is a member of the International Socialism Project in Chicago.
