Over the years, I’ve marched in many demonstrations where the slogan, “The whole world is watching!” was chanted. Of course, ninety-nine percent of the time the world wasn’t watching. However, the whole world really is watching the situation in Rafah. The purpose of this article is to explain the stakes involved in the latest stage of the Israeli assault on Gaza.
Rafah: The end of the line
Rafah is on Gaza’s southern border and is one of the two border crossings with Egypt. Its normal population is 250,000. However as the Israeli juggernaut has devastated the rest of Gaza, approximately 1.4 million Palestinians have taken refuge there. This is about two-thirds of the entire population. The conditions are appalling. Most people are living under plastic sheets. Basic necessities such as health care, sanitation, and food supplies are virtually non-existent. The Israeli-forced running down of UNRWA has only exacerbated this situation.
Rafah is the only significant area of Gaza that Israel has not yet invaded. Israeli troops have moved in and have some ability to function in the rest of Gaza—although they have not yet consolidated their occupation and are still facing ongoing military resistance. However, the IDF operation will not be complete until Rafah is taken. Netanyahu has repeatedly made clear that it will be the next target. We are therefore faced with the imminent prospect of an Israeli attack on an extremely heavily populated urban area where people are already living in severe crisis conditions.
There is nowhere for the population of Rafah to go. Egypt has made clear that it will not permit Palestinians to cross the border. In shades of Donald Trump, Egypt has been building a new five-meter-high wall to block any possible movement. Israel has said that people should evacuate to areas north of Rafah to avoid the coming attack. This is a cruel joke. These areas have already been destroyed by the Israeli attacks and could certainly not support one and a half million people.
The Palestinian death toll currently stands at 28,858. We should expect that number to increase sharply in the near future. First, fighting in over-crowded Rafah will lead to a large number of civilian casualties. Secondly, deaths from non-combat causes such as hunger, disease, and exposure will begin to mount as people are forced to stay in subhuman living conditions for increasing periods of time.
Increasing divisions
We are therefore facing a catastrophe in Palestine today. In fact, the severity of this prospect is creating real divisions in the international ruling class. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand have described a potential attack as “catastrophic”. Any number of UN and European leaders have warned against an Israeli escalation. Biden has taken a somewhat different approach. He has urged against an attack on Rafah while there is still possibility of negotiations. Biden has said that Israeli behavior is “over the top”. However, the US has not reduced its military and economic support for Israel. The US has announced that it will vote against a cease-fire resolution at the UN. US imperialism still fundamentally sees Israel as a key ally in a crucial volatile region of the world. It will continue to support Israel, even if it sees some of Israel’s actions as provocative and destabilizing.
An attack on Rafah will accentuate a process that has gathered steam as the Gaza war as dragged on: an increased openness to pro-Palestinian positions inside mainstream and liberal politics. Let me give a personal example to make this point. In the spring of 1978, Menachem Begin visited Northwestern University. I was one of a very small group who organized a demonstration against Begin. We were seen as pro-terrorist antisemitic wild men. We were completely isolated on the campus.
Today, large numbers of churches, seventy city councils, the United Auto Workers, the AFL-CIO, and many elected officials have called for a cease-fire. This is a complete sea-change from the days when every Palestinian demonstration faced the danger of a physical attack by the far right Jewish Defense League. The February 18 Chicago Sun Times featured a full page op-ed piece by an Editorial Board member supporting the current wave of pro- Palestinian demonstrations. This is unremarkable today, but it would have been unbelievable a few years ago. This new openness to positions such as the cease-fire in the broader political scene gives us an important opportunity to build the Palestine solidarity movement.
Where do Marxists stand?
- One, we obviously support the slogans of the mass demonstrations. End all US aid to Israel now! Withdraw all Israeli forces from Gaza! Let aid in now!
- Two, we are not just for a cease fire. We are on the side of the Palestinians and their just national struggle. We are in solidarity with the Palestinians; we are not neutral.
- Three, we maintain the long term perspective of a united socialist Middle East. We defend the concept of permanent, socialist, revolution in the Arab East. The Arab revolution should grant self-determination to all national minorities in the region, including the Hebrew and Palestinian peoples.
- Four, all our analysis and all our theory on the Middle East will only have value if they are linked to the immediate concrete and practical task before us: the building of the Palestinian solidarity movement.
Adam Shils is a member of the International Socialism Project in Chicago.
