When socialists look at the situation in a country, one of the first questions we ask is what is the balance of class forces? Where does the struggle between the employers and the working class stand?  This article will attempt to answer that question.

Unemployment

The October unemployment figure was 3.6%, down from a high of 10% in October 2009. Now obviously there is much that is wrong with the way that the unemployment figures are calculated. They do not include those who are too discouraged to look for work. They include as employed those who are working part time, but would like to work full time. The real unemployment rate is around 11%, considerably higher than the BLS figure. Having said this, however, there is no doubt that unemployment is going down at the moment. “Help Wanted” signs are a common sight.

Both ruling class pundits and Marxists historically have argued that a decline in unemployment tends to lead to an upturn in labor movement activity and an increase in workers´ wages. Workers feel more confident, fear unemployment less, and are strengthened by new layers coming into the work place.  The question we need to ask is: has this really happened in the current situation?

Nature of new jobs

To answer this question, we have to look at the nature of the new jobs being created and the general situation that workers today find themselves in. The newspapers point to the low level of unemployment, but pay scant attention to the nature of most of the new jobs being created.

 The new jobs and the new relations in the work place are characterized by the following factors:

• Low wages. Despite some recent upticks in overall wage rates, most replacement jobs offer laid off workers lower wages. A number of recent statistics show the extent of this problem. 62% of workers received no wage increase at all last year. 75% of the jobs created since the crash pay less than $50,000 per year. 63% of new non-supervisory jobs have either low wages or low hours. Hospitality and retail, sectors of the economy known for low wages, are at the top of the new job list. There are 106 million workers in the statistical category, “Production and Non-supervisory Employees”, 58 million of these workers get paid less than the average weekly wage of $ 793.  The point is clear: low wages cast a pall over much of the US working class. This creates both persistent family financial difficulties and individual demoralization.

• Wage structure. New jobs are permeated by different layers and tiers.  A worker may receive a different wage than a worker doing the exact same job right next to them. Regular contractual wage increases that go in the base figure used for calculating increases are often being replaced by one-off bonuses.

•  No set hours. On any given day, many workers have no idea how long their work day will be.  In the restaurant industry, for example, it is not unusual for a worker to have to stay as late as management demands if a large group arrives or, alternatively, may be sent home early if it is a quiet night or the weather’s bad.  Furthermore, management often changes schedules from day to day and week to week. This makes planning for education, child care, medical appointments and all the other necessities of daily life extremely difficult. Swing shifts that wreak havoc with health and family life are common.

• Part-time work. As already mentioned, a large number of workers would like to work full time.  Instead, they are working part time. The BLS calculates that there are 4.4 million workers in this category. Many workers are forced to work multiple jobs.  These workers obviously do not feel secure or confident in their situation.

• No benefits. The pension and healthcare situations of the new jobs are dire. The defined benefit pension is becoming a memory from the past. Only 4% of workers in the private sector currently have one. Thankfully, the figure is much higher in the public sector. A 401(K), subject to the vagaries of the stock market, is all many private sector workers have to look forward to. The crisis in health care is well known.

• Increased management supervision and discipline. A minute’s discussion with any union rep or steward will make clear that management feels stronger and more assertive in work place discipline than ever. HR departments and supervisors are increasingly giving out warnings, disciplinary letters, suspensions, and firing. The situation in non-unionized work places is even worse.

• Constant churning. Union militancy traditionally has been based on a work force that knows one another well and that has built ties of trust over a long period. Today’s workplaces are marked by constant churning with an ongoing turnover with seasonal hires, temps, and subcontracted workers coming and going frequently.

• Gig economy. Everything that we talked about so far is for those workers “lucky” enough to have one main employer. The situation is even worse for those in the “gig economy” working for companies such as Uber, Lyft, and TaskRabbit. For these workers, every day is precarious and uncertain.

• Long commutes. This is becoming a real element in workers’ lives. Jobs that workers are able to find are often long distances from home. This means that hours are spent in the daily commute. This leads to both personal exhaustion and less time for collective socializing and union activity.

All these factors have had a seriously retarding effect on the possibilities for workers struggles. They have undermined combativity and confidence. But they have not eradicated combativity and confidence, only weakened it. The new economic factors have prevented a full- blooded upturn in the class struggle. But these conditions have not prevented all struggle. Far from it! We will now turn to look at the labor movement today.

2018: Background to today’s struggles

Last year did see an increase in strikes. However, that increase has to be seen in the context of declining and very low numbers for many years. The statistics do not show a generalized strike wave. Left economist Doug Henwood has written a very useful piece on this point. Whether measured in terms of days lost or number of strikers, the trend has been on a downward slide, beginning with the employers’ offensive of the late 1970s and continuing, with occasional small upticks, to today. 

The highly visible and lively hotel workers’ strikes of UNITE/HERE in the fall of 2018 were an exception to a generally fairly quiet year in the private sector. The situation in the public sector was quite different. 2018 saw the magnificent upsurge of “Red for Ed” teachers’ movement. This movement has been widely discussed. Three points need to be made here. One, the movement spread like wildfire. Starting in West Virginia, teachers’ strikes took place successively, in Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arizona, California, Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina, and North Carolina. In 2019, the January Los Angeles teacher’s strike, the February Oakland strike, and the Chicago charter schools strikes show that this movement is far from dead. (The recent Chicago teachers strike will be looked at below.)

Two, these strikes were marked by a number of features that were new to teachers’ struggles: very high levels of mass mobilization, the strikes often originated in informal rank and file networks outside of the official union structures, a bold policy of outreach to parents and students, innovative use of social media, and a perceived sense of being part of a broader national struggle. Three, this movement was centered in K-12 schools. It had some spill over into higher education. But, unfortunately, it did not create great changes in the rest of the labor movement.

2019: Today’s struggles

Strikes this year have tended to fall into several categories. Obviously, these categories are not hard and fast. They are only to show the different types of strikes and struggles taking place.

• Major struggles with a national impact. There have been two nationally important strikes in the last several months. 

General Motors

            There were 46,000 workers on strike from September 16 until October 25. There were large and lively pickets at all of the plants and warehouses. One feature of these pickets was frequent visits by delegations from other unions. Popular support for the strike was obvious from the constant honking of passing drivers. As well as the traditional issues of wages and benefits, the questions of tiers and full-time work were at the center of this strike. They were the top issues on strikers’ minds. In marked contrast to the Chicago teachers, the flow of information from the leadership to the membership was very limited.

The final settlement was a mixed bag. On all issues relating to the tiers and full-time work, the union made some progress. However, these were improvements within the maze of tier structures and job categories. They improvements did no abolish this hated system. There are at least ten different categories and levels for GM workers, even with the new contract. To give some examples, it will take full time workers four years to get to the top of the schedule. Part-timers will be on a “path to permanent” starting in 2021, while temporary workers “path to permanent” will begin next year. The union made opposition to plant closings a central issue. Of the four threatened plants, only Hamtramck will stay open. Lordstown, Warren and Baltimore Transmissions will close. The wage settlement was a four-year contract with a 4% lump sum in years one and three, and a 3% increase in years two and four.

All in all, the union made some gains and waged a popular strike that found a good echo in the working class. However, the UAW came far from achieving the end of the patchwork of tiers, temps and part-timers that dominates the industry. This led to a situation where the contract was only approved by a 57% to 43% vote.

The Ford contract was subsequently approved, although the important Local 551 at the Chicago Torrance Avenue plant opposed the contract on issues of wages, tiers, and technological monitoring of assembly workers.

All of this takes place in the context of a major crisis enveloping the UAW leadership. A pattern of widespread corruption has been exposed in the programs jointly administered by the union and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. A number of prominent UAW leaders have been implicated. The scandal escalated sharply when, on November 20, UAW president Gary Jones resigned due to corruption allegations. At the same time, GM sued Fiat Chrysler claiming the bribery was designed to influence the UAW’s position in merger talks in the automobile industry and to give FCA advantages in the pattern bargaining round. This crisis will take some time to play out and we should be prepared for more than one shoe falling.

As if membership dissatisfaction and leadership meltdown were not enough, there is another problem looming on the UAW’s horizon. GM is looking at the production of electric cars. These require considerably fewer workers to produce. Handling this challenge will be another issue on autoworkers’ agenda.

Chicago teachers

The Chicago teachers struck for eleven school days in October.7,000 members of SEIU local 73 were also out in a synchronized strike. The strike dominated life in the city. It was characterized by a very high level of membership mobilization. Every day there were school pickets at 6:30 AM followed by large city-wide demonstrations most days. The October 23 march, of perhaps 25,000, was the largest labor movement demonstration in Chicago in decades. The marches had the feel of the traditional workers movement: very well marshaled, large numbers of prepared placards and banners, clearly defined march routes, and people coming in contingents by work place. Wearing the union colors of red and purple contributed to this feeling of unity and cohesion.

Nightly television news became a duel between the union and the administration of Mayor Lori Lightfoot. The union won this duel hands down. This was because of a very specific tactic adopted by the leadership, “social justice unionism.” The union did not prioritize the traditional issues of wages and benefits, instead they stressed educational issues. Particular emphasis was placed on the need for a social worker, nurse, and librarian in every school. Reduction in class size was also an important theme. Putting these ideas front and center helped the union win widespread popular support.

As with the GM settlement, the final contract is a complex document. On the educational issues, there were no concessions made and the union made progress upward. Most of the time, there was a compromise made between what the union wanted and the School Board’s position. This means that the contract is full of formulas and progressions. The main points are:

• A five year contract- with a 16% pay increase over the life of the contract.
• Very small increases in health care contributions.
• Social worker and case manager in every school.
• 250 more nurses by the end of the contract.
• Increased funding for teacher and clinician training.
• $35 million annually to decrease class sizes. A complex formula was agreed on how this would be implemented.
• 33% increase in sports funding.
• Improvements in the conditions of special education teachers, limiting other responsibilities being placed upon them.
• Five strike days made up.
• Some improvement in the pay of veteran teachers “frozen” on the salary schedule.
• Some improvements in the evaluation process.
• No progress was made in the very contentious issue of prep time.

The union won a contract that made gains on every issue, even if not winning their full demands. This, combined with the mass mobilizations by the rank and file and the capturing of great public support, made the strike an important step forward for the labor movement. The strike slogan, “When we fight, we win!” found an echo in the Chicago working class. In the weeks after the strike, we saw a strike vote by health care workers at Mt. Sinai/Schwab and a teacher strike in Grayslake. Across the border in Indiana, there was a large and spirited action at the state capitol on November 19.

Different forms of struggles

• Local strikes. There are almost always some local, often bitterly fought, strikes taking place. Recent examples of this type of strike are the ASARCO strike of 2,000 copper miners in Arizona and Texas, the Cinder Bed bus drivers in suburban DC, the steel worker strike against two tier wages at the Carley Foundry in Blaine, Minnesota, and the concluded strike of the Alaska ferry boat workers.

• Long running strikes. Two strikes have been going on for over a year. There is the strike of the Cambria Hotel workers in Chicago. The strike of the Spectrum telecommunication workers has been going on since March of 2017. While the labor movement must continue to support these workers, the situations here are obviously extremely grim.

• One day or demonstration strikes. In recent years, unions, particularly in health care and hospitality, have been using the tactic of one day or demonstration strikes. Here, the union announces that the strike will only last for a certain period. Recent examples of this include the Oakton Community College student support staff in the Chicago suburbs and the University of Chicago nurses. These strikes, while being much better than no struggle at all, do not have the power of the traditional open-ended strike.

• Blocking of railroad tracks! Sadly, this tactic has only been used once recently. Coal miners, in legendary Harlan County, Kentucky, blocked coal cars on the tracks, when bankrupt Blackjewel Coal refused to pay final wages. After a two month blockade the workers received the $5.1 million owed them.

Completing the picture

Strikes are not the only gauge of the strength of the labor movement. There are a number of other factors that need to be taken into account.

• Union density figures. The 2018 figures are 6.4% in the private sector and 33.9% in the public sector, making for an average of 10.5% of the work force being members of labor unions. While little changed from 2017, these figures are the product of a marked decline in union membership. 20.1% of the workforce were members on unions in 1983, the first year for which the BLS has comparable figures. So, membership is about half what it was then. While some new organizing is taking place, the defeat of the UAW in a high profile organizing drive at the Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga is quite significant. There is, however, one quite positive development in the field of union membership. In June of last year, the Supreme Court, in the infamous Janus decision, ruled that agency shop was illegal in the public sector. This meant that all workers, in a unionized work place no longer have to pay the bulk of union dues. Many union activists worried that there would be a rapid decline of AFSCME, the AFT, and the NEA if union dues payment was not mandatory. This is what happened in Wisconsin when a similar “right to work” law was passed. As of this writing, this has not happened. For example, in the Chicago Teachers Union, the loss of members since Janus has been minimal.

• The “organizing cadres.” Many analyses of the labor movement leave out an important point. Despite all the bureaucratization and all of the defeats of recent years, there still are tens of thousands of members who are active in their union on a daily basis. These are not full time staffers, but workers who put hours each day into their union work. The continued existence of this layer is part of the capital of the US labor movement. Every indication is that this layer is still intact and active.

• Opposition currents inside the unions. The class collaborationist leadership of the main unions do not have clear sailing.  Opposition currents are active in a number of trade unions. Three examples of this are:

• Teamsters. Teamsters for a Democratic Union is a vigorous and well organized national current. They are in a united front with union leaders who have split from the central Hoffa leadership.  This is taking the form of the Teamsters United presidential campaign of Sean O’Brien.
  •  Internal Elections. Recent elections have seen the victory of reform slates in the Denver and Baltimore teacher unions. A hotly contested election in the Newspaper Guild is being re-held.
  • Labor Notes. Labor Notes forms an essential part of the landscape of the left in the labor movement. Its’ 2018 conference was attended by over 3,000 activists. It has become the center for militant discussion and education in the trade union movement.

What conclusions can we draw about the overall state of the class struggle?

• Jobs in the “new economy” are not sufficiently secure to create a sense of self-confidence in the working class.
• The overall balance of class forces is decidedly in favor of capital and against labor.
• There has been a marked upsurge of struggle in the schools. However, this upsurge has not spread to the rest of the labor movement.
• The US working class is huge. The size of current struggles is not sufficient to talk of a class wide upsurge.  One statistic makes this clear. In October, only 0.3% of the workforce were on strike. A far greater number of strikes will be necessary to change the overall balance of class forces.
• No situation is ever one hundred percent this or one hundred percent that. Despite a generally difficult situation, the labor movement has had some important struggles in recent months. The GM strike and the Chicago Teachers strike, which continued the Red for Ed wave, are at center stage here. Having a sober view of the overall situation does not mean that we should not enthusiastically welcome and fully participate in every break in the struggle, in every new opportunity to change the balance of class forces.
• The job of socialists is to seize on every positive development from the strikes to Labor Notes to the unsung daily fights in the workplace. These actions show that the workers movement is not only still alive, but also the only hope for the future.