The Left debate in Brazil over how to topple Bolsonaro

Second only to the U.S., Brazil has emerged as the main “hot spot” for the coronavirus outbreak in the world. Perhaps it’s no coincidence that the presidents of both countries are corrupt, far-right politicians who have made racism and climate (and now virus) denialism central to their appeal.

The government of President Jair Bolsonaro is now under siege for its disastrous response to COVID-19, its corruption and its connection to local mafias and far-right militias. Bolsonaro has increasingly threatened to impose a state of siege or even military rule.

The Brazilian left is beginning to recover from almost a decade of political defeats. It is currently engaged in a debate about the strategy to end the Bolsonaro presidency: through mass mobilization or voting Bolsonaro out of office in 2022.

This article, from the editorial collective for the left-wing Brazilian Web site Esquerda Online, summarizes the current situation in Brazil and makes the case for a strategy of mass mobilization to bring down Bolsonaro.

Translation and introduction by Lance Selfa

Four aspects of the political situation and a strategic gamble

1. The pandemic is not under control

The genocidal policy of the Bolsonaro government has made Brazil the epicenter of Covid-19, leading the world in the number of deaths per day in recent weeks. Even assuming a huge undercount, the country’s official totals stood at more than 50,000 dead and more than 1 million infected at the time of writing.

Bolsonaro is the main culprit for this immense tragedy, but governors and mayors also bear their share of responsibility. Giving in to pressure from business and the federal government, they are allowing the return of most non-essential economic activities at a time when the pandemic’s “curve” has not yet been flattened.

In the name of profits for the few, our rulers are deliberately sacrificing the lives of tens of thousands of Brazilians. And Covid-19 doesn’t hit everyone equally. Due to brutal social inequality and structural racism, workers—the vast majority of cases—are dying, especially the poor Black population in the suburbs and favelas.

Despite the uneven spread of the disease throughout different regions and cities, it’s very likely that the pandemic will only get worse nationwide in the coming weeks. For this reason, the campaign for quarantine—with social and economic support provided—must be stepped up so that the working population can stay home.

2. The economic and social crisis accelerates

Next to the worsening pandemic, the recession looms largest. The Brazilian economy will experience a phenomenal collapse in 2020, estimated at between 5-10 percent of gross domestic product.

Even if the spread of Covid-19 could be controlled in the short term— which seems unlikely—the terrible effects of the economic decline will increase in the coming months. We’ve already seen a dizzying increase in unemployment (at least 5 million jobs were eliminated in May) and a significant decline in the income of most working-class and middle-class families.

The economic policy of President Jair Bolsonaro and Economic Minister Paulo Guedes, with the support of Rodrigo Maia, the president of the Chamber of Deputies [ a position akin to the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the U.S.] and most of the governors, consists of shifting the main costs of the crisis onto the backs of workers. Whether through unemployment and the denial of rights, or the decline in wages and incomes from work, workers will suffer the most from the crisis.

Along with social and economic attacks, racist and sexist violence has intensified. Even with the pandemic, the number of violent deaths of Black, marginalized and poor people at the hands of the military police has increased. At the same time, cases of violence against women have increased.

The brutal economic crisis and the worsening of racist and misogynistic violence are producing an inevitable deepening of the social crisis. This, in turn, is stimulating social unrest in the working and middle classes. The Congress’s emergency one-time assistance of 600 reais to informal sector workers [about $110] prevented an immediate social collapse, but it did not halt the impoverishment of large sections of the population.

3. The Bolsonaro government is weaker

On the unsteady terrain of the economic and social crisis, political conflict and clashes between government institutions are intensifying. Faced with its increasing weakness and political isolation, accelerated by the recent judicial offensive led by the STF (Supreme Federal Court), Bolsonaro has threatened to call in the military.

But the government and the president’s family are under increasing pressure. Investigations into fake news and anti-democratic acts under the authority of STF minister Alexandre de Moraes led in recent weeks to the arrest of several fascist provocateurs (including Sara Winter and Renan Sena, both members of a right-wing extremist group, 300 do Brasil, who have threatened de Moraes), to the disclosure of secret bank accounts held by 11 Bolsonaro-supporting parliamentarians, and to raids on the leaders and financiers of “militias” [paramilitary gangs that run large sections of major cities like Rio de Janeiro].

In addition to these ongoing Supreme Court investigations, former military police officer Fabrício de Queiroz was arrested at the home of Frederick Wassef, a lawyer for the Bolsonaro family. [Note: Queiroz was an aide to Flavio Bolsonaro, the president’s son and state senator. A media investigation showed that Queiroz was providing financial kickbacks to Flavio and is linked to paramilitary gangs.] This incident put Flavio and Jair Bolsonaro right in the middle of an outrageous case of corruption and criminal relations with the Rio de Janeiro militia. This has only increased the first family’s legal problems while further inflicting political damage on militia backers.

Despite the government’s growing weakness, Bolsonaro’s threats of a coup should not be underestimated. Bolsonaro’s government still retains a significant social base of support (about 30 percent of the population). In addition, the militias have substantial influence in sectors of the armed forces and police, and they have political support from a segment of the ruling class.

For now, the prevailing big business view is to avoid either the overthrow of the government (either through a Supreme Court ruling or a congressional impeachment) or a Bolsonaro move to a dictatorial regime. In short, they want to discipline the fascist without taking away his power. On the STF investigations and the Queiroz case, the left should demand that investigations be stepped up and that the leaders and financiers of these criminal schemes be punished to the full extent of the law—starting with the Bolsonaro family. No freedom for the enemies of freedom!

4. The anti-racist uprising in the U.S. and its impact in Brazil

There is a new element in the world class struggle: the historic anti-racist uprising that is shaking the United States. This great mass and radical struggle, whose vanguard is working-class Black youth, has spilled across American borders and spread to a number of countries around the world. Symbolic of this moment, statues of slave traders and imperialist leaders have fallen in Belgium, the United Kingdom, France and the United States, among other countries.

The anti-racist revolt at the heart of the capitalist system is defeating Donald Trump and paving the way for new revolts in various parts of the world. This uprising cannot be understood outside of the context of the pandemic in which workers—particularly the most oppressed—are paying the price for the crisis with their lives and their jobs.

Although Brazil operates in its own specific political reality, the wave of struggle the U.S. revolt unleashed has hit Brazil. In recent weeks, street protests have had an expressive black presence, both in their composition and in their agenda. The cruel murder of George Floyd is part of the same racist project that, in Brazil, murdered Aghata, Joao Pedro, Miguel, Guilherme, Marielle [Franco, an Afro Brazilian socialist and Rio city council member whom right-wing gangs murdered in 2018]… and so many other lives that matter and yet are eliminated by the death-cult policies of the Brazilian state.

In addition to the influence of the anti-racist uprising and Sunday street protests in recent weeks, resistance actions involving many different types of workers have emerged across the country, from the mobilizations of health professionals and the strikes of digital app developers, who have called a strike for July 1. The worsening pandemic is, for now, preventing mass protests in the streets. But the anger that is accumulating in broad sectors of the working and oppressed class will explode on the streets as soon as health conditions permit.

The strategic gamble: prepare conditions to overthrow Bolsonaro in the streets

All indications are that Brazil is heading, in the short term, towards a serious national crisis due to the unprecedented combination of economic, social, health and political crises. Despite the weakness of the government, Bolsonaro is not hiding his end goal: that is to suspend democratic government if he feels he can get away with it.

It is a terrible mistake to assume that Bolsonaro will adhere to democratic norms while the opposition bides its time until the 2022 election. This posture will only lead to a bitter defeat. Bolsonaro is a fascist, and as such, he will not submit to “democratic” control. In addition, we are facing a government that has, since the beginning of this crisis, announced its intention to see the military take over the government. Therefore, the task of forcing Bolsonaro out is an immediate necessity that cannot be postponed. There is no way to save lives and to preserve social rights and democratic rights with a fascist in the presidency in the midst of a serious national crisis.

The political stance of those who want to avoid confrontation, want to avoid provoking Bolsonaro, and want to wait until the 2022 elections, clears the way—even unintentionally—for an authoritarian and fascist power grab that may even cancel democratic elections in 2022. For this reason, it’s necessary that now, when the government is weak, we prepare the conditions to drive out Bolsonaro as soon as possible.

The key to the overthrowing Bolsonaro is mass mobilization in the streets. Because of the deepening pandemic, this possibility is not immediately on the agenda. As long as it is not possible to take to the streets en masse, we must fight to expand the social majority against the government, to focus on the centrality of the anti-racist agenda, to build whatever resistance is possible in support of the demands of working and oppressed people, and to strengthen solidarity action.

Democratic unity with all social and political sectors in the “Bolsonaro, Out! (Foro Bolsonaro) movement and defense of democratic freedoms is very important. More still, we must build a left-wing working-class united front for social and democratic rights and to fight for a new Brazil by and for the majority of its working people and Black people.