This article appeared in Correspondencia de Prensa on May 28, 2021. It was translated into English by the ISP.
The Metro tragedy
A terrible tragedy occurred on May 3, when an elevated section of the Mexico City Metro collapsed near the Olivos station on Line 12, located in Tláhuac. This is one of the most proletarian and densely populated districts, and the collapse shocked the city’s population while resonating nationally: the official toll was 26 dead and there were around 80 injured, many of them seriously. It was the worst construction disaster in the more than 50 years of the enormous Collective Transportation System (STC), a giant network that serves more than six million passengers daily. The overwhelming majority of them are workers who use it several hours a day, thus serving the essential transportation needs of the greater urban population.
The workers and their representatives in the various Metro trade union organizations of the Metro had already warned of the sharp decrease in its budget and the dire consequences that the system was suffering. Indeed, a review of the STC’s finances leaves no room for doubt: as of 2017, the decrease in the budget by several hundred million pesos is obvious, which became even more evident during the last two years. This is irrefutable proof of the effect of the austerity and privatization policies imposed by neoliberal governments, which have been followed by the current government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly known as “AMLO”).
Fernando Espino, leader of one of the subway unions, stated in an interview that since 2012, they had been regularly reporting various faults in Line 12, especially in its elevated viaduct, including braking, knocking, vibrations, squeaking wheels and wear and tear on the rails—to the responsible authorities. “But so far they have not paid any attention to us.”Other leaders added information about structural damage along the dozens of kilometers of the infrastructure causing water seepage, which had been intensified by the earthquake of September 29, 2017. Also, in an interview on the same day, Metro director Florencia Serranía— who, by the way, did not show up at the scene of the May 3 disaster at any time—denied these claims altogether, saying that in daily reviews she never received reports of failures in its operation.
A tragedy foretold
This is an event that was a long time coming. Since the introduction of neoliberal policies, the STC has been subjected to deficient maintenance work due both to the aforementioned austerity policy and to the increasingly clumsy and negligent behavior of the officials in charge of the city government. In a report to the workers they affirm that the situation of the STC “is a time bomb” and that “the tragedy of Monday May 3 could be repeated at any moment in any other of its lines.”
During the PRIAN period [an informal alliance between elected representatives from the two right-of-center parties, PRI and PAN], the neglect of the Metro was apparent. Governments halted its expansion to sectors of the city with pressing needs for new and better means of public transportation. Line 12 of the STC was the last one built so far by the government that came to power in the large metropolis of Mexico City after the PRI’s defeat in 1997. The arrival of the PRD in that year with Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas as head of the Mexico City government (later succeeded by AMLO in 2000) turned Mexico City into AMLO’s strongest bastion, first as presidential candidate of the PRD and then as Morena’s (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional). It was in Mexico City that AMLO first projected himself as a national leader and it was precisely in Iztapalapa, Tláhuac and Gustavo A. Madero, the large proletarian districts in the east and north of the city, where he got his first massive support. Finally,after three presidential campaigns, AMLO defeated the PRIAN in 2018, and won the presidency of the Republic.
AMLO’s successor as head of government of Mexico City from 2006-2012, Marcelo Ebrard, initiated the construction of Line 12, which he baptized as “Dorada” (“Golden”). From the beginning of its construction, it was the subject of much controversy and debate. Ebrard’s conduct as head of the Line 12 construction site is at the root of the May 3 tragedy. During his administration, it was decided that half of its route would be elevated, rather than a subway. This decision was controversial because it traced a route through Iztapalapa and Tláhuac, two densely populated working-class districts built on clay soil, most of which at the beginning of the 20th century was still home to lakes and lagoons. All the data point to the fact that the decisions of Ebrard and his team—which included both Miguel Angel Mancera, who succeeded him as head of government from 2012-2018 and Mario Delgado, who was his finance secretary and is currently the president of Morena—were due to his decision to follow the prevailing construction criteria inclined to using materials as cheaply as possible: trains with steel wheels instead of tires, convoys inadequate for the rails installed, and so on. In addition, Ebrard clearly wanted to preside over the ribbon-cutting on Line 12, further accelerating the pace of the construction. In fact, Ebrard inaugurated it on October 30, 2012, just days before the end of his term in office. Finally, the overpriced cost of the work, exceeding its original budget by several billions of pesos, has since been the subject of speculation that points to enormous corruption.
Miguel Angel Mancera, a mediocre character without a shred of progressive ideological leanings, succeeded Ebrard as the PRD candidate. Mancera leaned in the direction of neoliberal former president Peña Nieto which determined that Ebrard effectively went into exile and remained so until 2018. An audit of the construction was carried out, although none of its conclusions were published and, thus,remain unknown. Mancera closed Line 12’s elevated route in 2013 with the aim of reviewing the already very obvious flaws in its construction. A senior official involved in the construction was disqualified from holding a government job over allegations of irresponsibility and negligence. Several other employees have also been singled out. The closure of the elevated route was first expected to be for six months. Finally, it was closed for twenty months. But when it reopened it did not seem at all that there had been any real and deep improvement. Workers, passengers and all the inhabitants of Iztapalapa and Tláhuac continued to see the clear cracks in the columns, to hear the squeaking of the wheels on the rails and to feel the trembling as the trains passed by. All of them could not but realize that Line 12 was poorly constructed. The 2017 earthquake that left its mark in the cracks of certain columns and girders did not go unnoticed either.
This is how things were when, in 2018, Claudia Sheinbaum, together with AMLO, became the head of the Mexico City government. The Metro situation did not improve, but worsened. During her administration, and before the collapse of the convoys at Olivos station, there were several accidents among which two major and ominous ones stood out: a train crash on Line 1 at Tacubaya station on March 10, 2020 and a fire at the Central Control Post on January 9, 2021 that forced the suspension of service of four lines for several weeks. In these events, the clumsiness of the “explanations” of the director Florencia Serranía—whose absence and shielding by the media after the collapse of Olivos station, and whose absence remains one of the biggest scandals of the whole case—always stood out.
How AMLO and his supporters responded
The collapse of the Line 12 train is the hardest blow received to date by the group that constitutes the heart of the leadership of the Fourth Transformation (4T) [AMLO’s pretentious name for his governing program]. It has happened at the worst possible moment: only one month before the June midterm elections, whose results will be crucial for the second half of the LópezObrador government, where already heated early battles are breaking out, with an eye toward the 2024 presidential election.
The search for responsibility for the tragedy on the part of the authorities is inevitably running up against themselves. First of all, Marcelo Ebrard and Claudia Sheinbaum are the people closest to AMLO. It was widely considered that one of the two would be the one to succeed him in 2024. They and their respective groups are the ones who manage and decide the policies proposed by AMLO. They are his main operatives and therefore, they have great power. The horrible crisis caused by the collapse of the Metro has fallen right into the lap of “Obradorism”. AMLO can’t blame his opponents for the negligence, irresponsibility, corruption, secrecy, and all the nefarious elements that are evident in the disaster. That is why he immediately adopted the tactic of distraction—referring as little as possible to what happened at Olivos station. To this must be added the president’s crude hypocrisy, where on the one hand he declares that he will get to the bottom of the investigations, that those responsible will be punished, that the information that the people deserve will be transparent, and, on the other hand,says that those demanding the same are “vultures” feasting on the tragedy. His followers in the Chamber of Deputies oppose the demand to create a legislative commission to thoroughly investigate what happened (calling it“scavenging”). Meanwhile, they are using their majority to prevent calling director Florencia Serranía to account. Nor was it possible to ignore AMLO’s pained expression when he angrily answered a reporter who asked him why he had not shown up at the scene of the tragedy: “Fuck! It’s not my style!”
The disaster has obviously reverberated through the very highest ranks of Morena. Less than a week after the Metro collapse, Claudia Sheinbaum also plummeted in the polls, dropping more than 20 points in her favorability ratings, from almost 70 points to less than 50 (more than AMLO himself). The situation in which Chancellor Ebrard finds himself is by no means more comfortable. Contradictions proliferated among deputies, senators and in all branches of the official and opposition bourgeois groups.
The Morena group of congress members launched itself against Miguel Angel Mancera, proposing his removal as senator of the PRD in order to prosecute him as the one responsible for the catastrophe. However, the initiative was stopped dead in its tracks by the Morenista leader of the Senate, Ricardo Monreal, arguing that there is no need to resort to “lynchings” and to wait for the investigations of the foreign experts already hired to deliver their verdicts on the technical causes of the tragedy. It is obvious that Monreal and many other Morena leaders are aware that those involved are above all three of their leaders who are in the spotlight of public opinion: Ebrard, Sheinbaum, and to a lesser extent, Delgado. So why is Mancera, who is also directly involved in the root causes of the tragedy and can also be a perfect scapegoat (since he is no longer important in the corridors of power in the government and Morena) being protected? Surelythey fear that Mancera, cornered, could be very dangerous in his effort to defend himself.
In fact, this is happening with opposition politicians at all levels. Right now, a notable example is that of the PAN governor of Tamaulipas, Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca—who has been removed by the Morenista deputies and is being prosecuted by the United States justice system—but has been defended by the legislature of his state. He is still free. Meanwhile, he is persecuting and arresting his local enemies, both opponents and members of his own party. A truly chaotic situation reigns in the ruling political circles.
Difficult times
The situation López Obrador faces in the runup to the June elections has deteriorated greatly. In fact, the Line 12 disaster was the culmination of a series of stumbles and failures that had already been mounting. His goal of achieving a resounding victory in the June elections like the one he achieved three years ago is no longer as straightforward as it seemed at the beginning of the year. The crisis caused by the collapse of the Metro trains at the Olivos station has added to the already complicated internal struggles within the government and Morena.
Difficulties and confrontations of all kinds have multiplied and clouded the electoral horizon. One important factor was the leadership of Morena. Party executive Mario Delgado, a key ally of Ebrard, has had enormous failures: unsuitable candidates, constant clashes with the Morena membership, and major blunders in his bullying, crude and arrogant style. His confrontation with the old man Porfirio Muñoz Ledo, who competed with him for the leadership of Morena, caused him serious damage. Muñoz Ledo denounced him as corrupt and exposed the lack of democracy in Morena.
Then in April, the confrontation with the National Electoral Institute (INE) also had serious consequences. The INE, in a clear act of defiance, threw out two Morena candidates—in Michoacán, Raúl Morón and in Guerrero, Félix Salgado Macedonio. Especially the latter, who AMLO strongly defended. Although Macedonio has a large following in Guerrero itself, he has been accused of rape by several women. He also has a history of arbitrary actions and inappropriate collaborations, such as contacts with the narco world in his state, where he was denounced by several journalists. Although AMLO should have stopped any retaliation by his followers against INE, he announced that INE, this iconic institution of the “democratic transition” as it currently exists, should disappear after the elections. Meanwhile, Salgado Macedonio, in an act of the crudest nepotism, picked his daughter Evelyn Salgado as the candidate for governor of Guerrero.
Another major confrontation has taken place recently between AMLO and key sectors of the judiciary. Two fundamental laws recently approved by Congress for AMLO, the Electricity Industry Law and the Hydrocarbons Law, with which he intends to overturn many of the energy standards of his predecessor Peña Nieto, have come up against judges who have agreed to suspend them in the face of complaints from more than a dozen operators in the electricity, hydrocarbons, hydroelectric and petrochemical markets.
Fully aware of the importance of the control of the judiciary, AMLO proposed to the Senate in April a completely unconstitutional law that would extend by two years the four-year term of the president of the Supreme Court of Justice (SCJN), Arturo Zaldívar—a supporter of the 4T—so that he would also preside over the judiciary during the entire six-year term of AMLO’s administration. Certainly, the SCJN, which is the final authority on the matter, must still decide. But the President of the Republic has made obvious his intention to make a constitutional change in this important relationship between the judiciary and the executive.
AMLO’s authoritarian disposition tends to overstep the limits that judges and the judiciary as a whole represent. This is the most important element of the “rule of law,” the sacrosanct embodiment of the bourgeois Law with a capital letter. In other words, it’s a situation whose obvious violation goes beyond the bourgeois institutional limits that, until today, AMLO has respected and accepted. The same has happened with respect to AMLO’s participation in electoral campaigns. Morena’s blunders with unsuitable candidates such as those in Guerrero and Michoacán, were the most notable, but there were others.
The Morena candidate in Nuevo Leon, Clara Luz Flores, a former PRI candidate, also supported by the Labor Party (PT), the Green Party (PVEM) and Nueva Alianza, stands out. At the beginning of the campaign, she was in first place in the polls, but a video launched by her PRI opponent sank her to fourth place today. (The video presented her in a one-hour interview with Keith Raniere, head of the NXIVM sex cult, sentenced months ago to life imprisonment in the USA for heinous crimes). Since then, AMLO has dedicated himself to trying to disqualify opposition candidates in Nuevo Leon for electoral violations. For him, the governorship of Nuevo Leon, the state with some of the wealthiest people in Mexico, is very important. This has made him confront the influential and powerful big bourgeoisie of the state, which is currently on very bad terms with the President.
Businessman Fernando Turner Dávila, founder and leader of the Monterrey-based National Association of Independent Businessmen (ANEI), who served as one of AMLO’s close collaborators during his electoral campaign and in the first months of his administration, has completely distanced himself from him. In an interview, he has bluntly stated that “the President’s interference in the elections greatly increases the uneasiness among businessmen, middle and upper classes [….] We see that there is an authoritarian Executive power that, without limits, threatens the freedom, life and property of almost anyone that power has the desire to affect. Among businessmen, what I see and hear is a generalized displeasure with the performance of the federal government in economic aspects, in the pandemic and security and now in politics.”
There are many people who say that AMLO’s behavior mimics Trump’s, namely that he would be inclined to contest as fraudulent any electoral results that do not favor him. Although he is not a candidate, it is clear that for AMLO the elections are a sort of referendum on his presidency, and he is aware that his interference is decisive to achieving the resounding victory he wishes to obtain. That is why he has decided to intervene in them, knowing that he risks being accused of violating electoral laws. But the objective goes beyond the elections. In fact, the thrust of his policy tends toward the imposition of an authoritarianism without limits.
The character of Obradorism
The elections to be held on June 6 offer the workers and the people of Mexico practically nothing. There is not a single candidate among the almost 90 percent of the current deputies seeking re-election who truly responds to the deepest interests of the popular masses. It is AMLO’s rule that is at the core.
As of July 2018, in the three years since AMLO has presided as the country’s strongman, as the undisputed majority political leader, Mexico has not emerged from the deep crisis that 32 million citizens who voted for him had a burning desire to overcome. Rather, the balance is negative. The crisis has deepened. In 2019 the economic decrease was negative 2 percent and in 2020 it was negative 8.5, the worst national economic depression in ninety years. Certainly, the effect of the terrible Covid-19 pandemic is largely responsible for the depression, but the AMLO government policies undoubtedly contributed as much to the mismanagement of the economy as to the health emergency produced by Covid-19, whose deadliness it underestimated from the beginning.
Any university student of economics knows that in recessions or depression, the appropriate policies are counter-cyclical. But the policies of the López Obrador government have emphasized austerity in government spending, tightening the belt of public finances at the expense of investments, and the concentration of the budget in construction projects that do not have an impact on job creation and the domestic economy. The Mayan train, the Tabasco refinery and the Santa Lucia airport are perfect examples of those kinds of projects. All this is to the detriment of social spending (that is, collective spending, not individual spending) in the areas of health, education and the funds needed to attack the explosive unemployment caused by the pandemic.
An illustration of this imbalance in the 4T’s priorities is the Mayan train and its associated projects. Its cost could reach 348 billion pesos, a sum that would be several times that of the health system. As a result, massive poverty hasbroken out. In its latest report, Coneval, the organization that measures the level of poverty in the country, estimates an increase of between 8.9 million to 9.8 million people who cannot cover the cost of basic foodstuffs due to the Covid-19 crisis. In the face of this massive increase in poverty, AMLO’s programs of cash payments to the elderly and young people are clearly insufficient.
In assessing AMLO’s administration, it is necessary to point out that its social policy is at the very least conservative, if not completely reactionary. Undoubtedly, one of the most notorious and significant clashes the president had was with the women protesters who cornered him in 2019. Only the outbreak of the pandemic prevented him from being even more overwhelmed by feminist anger. It is clear that AMLO is not a feminist, but he is not even sensitive to the most elementary norms of gender equality. Let’s not talk about his position regarding abortion, on which he has never taken a clear and forceful stand, always evading revealing his own position with the argument that “the people will decide.”
With the teachers of the CNTE union he has not behaved up to his campaign promises either. Peña Nieto’s “educational reform” is still in force for the most part, and the imposition of the calculation of pensions according to the UMA (Updated Measurement Unit) and not according to the minimum wage has meant a real attack on pensioners and retirees by significantly reducing their incomes.
And completing a fruitless and dangerous political course, we cannot fail to point out the disastrous strategy of deepening the militarization initiated by the PAN’s Calderón and continued by the PRI’s Peña Nieto. Ironically, the creation of the National Guard, instead of contributing to reducing crime, has coincided with the rise of a devastating wave of murders, disappearances and pervasive insecurity.
Outlook for the elections and beyond
Throughout his administration, AMLO has brought about a dramatic change in the dynamics that “the democratic transition” sought to impose. The failure of the 18 years of the PRIAN was for AMLO the great political alibi that the three years of the 4T’s ineffectiveness and the lack of notable achievements is now exhausting. The upcoming elections will measure the development of popular consciousness. Certainly, the Metro disaster—hitting directly at AMLO’s base—will help to gauge the indignation in key sectors in Mexico City, the densely working-class neighborhoods directly affected by Olivos station disaster. The question of the control and administration of this public transportation system, crucial for a great urban center, will raise the question of control of the system by its workers and passengers in light of the inefficiency and negligence on the part of the Obrador government.
It is certainly impossible to say precisely what the outcome will be in the largest elections in Mexico’s history. However, it is possible to predict some central issues. In the first place, the total absence of an alternative that represents and expresses the genuine interests of the working population is self-evident. As a class, the workers, and their allies, women, Indigenous people and the most oppressed youth remain without political representation. This fact adds more volatility to the electoral situation, which is itself already volatile.
As far as AMLO’s government is concerned, all the information provided in this article allow us to understand that the authoritarian tendencies present at its core will be even more strongly deployed after June 6. There are no truly democratic aspirations in the Obradorist 4T project. After the time that has been lost, in the next elections it is very likely that there will not be a repeat of the electoral tsunami of three years ago. Thus, the new regime will lean towards dictatorship, although obstacles have appeared on both sides. More and more bourgeois groups openly disagree with the government, and the Metro disaster opened the first big breach in mass popular confidence.
The post-election period will be very confrontational. Popular forces must remain independent and focused on preparing mobilizations that will be built in the streets and in workplaces. New alliances and organizations will lead and win in the struggles to come.
A return to PRIAN-style bourgeois solutions is impossible. Given AMLO’s project of a strong government, there can only be a repeat of the return of the PRI-era governments. This would be a giant step backwards.
The people of Mexico find themselves in a situation in which the rulers who represent the dominant capitalist classes, their “national” factions and the big capitalist-imperialists, especially in the U.S., have led the country to its present appalling situation. Only the firm, democratic and emancipatory struggles of the workers and their grassroots allies will be able to overcome it. The agenda of the Mexican people points to that liberation struggle as its fundamental historic task. To prepare for it, and to accomplish it, we must dedicate ourselves to building a revolutionary socialist organization.
Manuel Aguilar Mora
Manuel Aguilar Mora is a member of the League of Socialist Unity (LUS) and a professor at the Autonomous University of Mexico City (UACM). In 1968, he was a member of the Committee of Struggle of Philosophy and Letters alongside José Revueltas. He is the author of numerous books on the political and social history of Mexico.
