Israeli assault continues into 2024

The ever increasing carnage in Gaza has prompted very large Palestine demonstrations over the past several days. The purpose of this article is to look at where the war stands as the new year begins. There are three main themes that dominate the situation: the ratcheting up of conflict across the region, the catastrophic situation in Gaza, and the growth of international support for Palestine.

Regional context

The US ruling class does not want the entire Middle East to go up in flames. Similarly, the Iranian bourgeoisie does not want a major war with the US. However, Tehran cannot afford to be seen as weak in the face of US and Israeli aggression. Therefore, Iran has engaged in a limited series of military moves through surrogates, but not on a scale large enough to start a full scale war with Israel or the United States. In the context of the Middle East today this is a very fraught and dangerous maneuver.

The United States continues to fundamentally support Israel, despite injunctions on Israel to moderate the intensity of the offensive. This means that the US will continue its military deployment in the region and conduct operations such as the recent bombings of Houthi targets in Yemen.

For its part, Israel continues to make a bull in a china shop look timid and reticent. This course has led to an increase in Israeli military actions outside Gaza .

These factors form the background to these current examples of the increase in regional tension.

The bombing by the US and Britain of Houthi military installations. This follows the attacks by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea. The Houthis are closely aligned with Iran. Their ship attacks have created some alarm in the international ruling class. The Red Sea/Suez Canal passage is a crucial route in international supply chains. Blockages there will have a knock-on effect on the real economy. Shipping insurance rates have already gone up. The costs of re-routing shipping past the Cape of Good Hope are considerable. These economic factors coupled with the US’s role as the global policeman account for last week’s bombings.
Israel has killed Hamas leaders in both Lebanon and Syria.
Fighting with Hezbollah has continued on Israel’s northern border.
There have been attacks, without any casualties, on US soldiers in Syria and Iraq.
ISIS bombed a memorial event for Iranian general Qassim Suleimani. Although this action is not linked to the Israeli attack on Gaza, it’s certainly indicative of rising regional tensions.
Both the IDF and Israeli settlers continue to rampage on the West Bank. The latest figures are that 483 Palestinians have been killed and about 5,800 arrested since the start of the war.

These events form the regional context for the war itself.

Gaza today

The Israeli leadership has talked of shifting the war into a lower gear, meaning less bombardment and a more cautious pace of ground warfare. This should not lead us to any false optimism about an early end to the war. Changing tempo is a common military tactic. Troops need to be relieved and rotated. Supply lines need to be consolidated. Occupied territory needs to be consolidated. Changes in the ratio between aerial and artillery attacks on the one hand and ground operations on the other are a frequent aspect of military tactics.

Such adjustments are particularly needed when moving to urban warfare which demands a slower, more careful, approach. These factors are what account for the Israeli talk of changing the techniques of this war.

The most striking aspect of the current situation is the extraordinary suffering of the people of Gaza. The latest statistics are astounding.

The Palestinian death toll has reached 23,469. Let’s put this number into some perspective. It’s a little more than one percent of the total population. It’s equivalent in America would be 3.3 million people. This would be more than Metro Chicago, but less than Los Angeles. This is the type of scale that we are talking about.
85% of the population are now refugees.
33% of all buildings have been destroyed.
Health and sanitation are collapsing. There is presently one toilet for every 220 people and one shower for every 4,500 people.
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) is a well-regarded international scientific initiative. It breaks down acute food insecurity into five levels. One is none or minimal. Two is stressed. Three is crisis. Four is emergency. Finally, five is catastrophe or famine. The IPC believes that as of December 7, 93% of the people of Gaza were in Level Three or above. The IPC further predicts that this figure will rise to 100% by February 7. Furthermore, the IPC projects that 26% will be in the Level Five famine or catastrophe category.

Israel’s attempt to evict the Palestinians from Gaza has truly become one of the greatest human catastrophes of our time.

International solidarity

South Africa made a bold move by bringing genocide charges against Israel in the International Court of Justice in The Hague. This action has caught international attention and aroused the interests of thousands seeking to stop the Israeli war machine.

This court case could bring the horrors that Israel has wrought upon the Palestinians to millions around the world. This would help the solidarity movements pressure their governments to distance themselves from Israel and increase Israel’s international isolation. The evidence presented in the trial could outrage thousands, bringing them into the solidarity movement. We know that the Israeli government is concerned by its lack of international support and the trial could help exacerbate this situation.

For all these reasons, we should welcome South Africa’s actions. However, we should do so with our eyes open. The significance of the ICJ case is how it will assist building the movement in the streets. A guilty verdict would certainly be extremely helpful in this regard. However, a guilty verdict would not stop Israel’s actions. Netanyahu has zero intent of obeying the Court’s orders. The Court has no means of enforcing its verdict. The Court cannot compel Israel to stop its war in Gaza. The genocide trial can be a huge boon to the solidarity movement, but it will not be the means by which Israel’s war can be halted.

The most recent round of demonstrations show the strength of our movement. On January 13, literally hundreds of thousands marched in both London and Washington DC. The momentum of the movement continues to build.

The Israeli War Cabinet has a very clear objective for 2024, to evict as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza. In so doing, it will hope to take a major step towards its long term objective of creating a land free of Palestinians, “from the river to the sea”.

We also have a very clear objective for 2024, the building of the most powerful Palestinian solidarity movement possible. Such a movement can be a factor blocking Tel Aviv from reaching its objectives and can show the Palestinians that they are not alone. In building this movement, we also are reviving the best traditions of international solidarity that are at the center of Marxism.