Israel falters while Palestinian death toll passes 38,000

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu threatens to rain hell onto Lebanon and Hezbollah. At the same time, the IDF insists it needs a pause to regroup its forces. Supposedly “pacified” Gaza towns such as Khan Younis are under fresh assault, while Israeli leaders say the war is going to a new, less intense, phase. The purpose of this article is to argue that behind all the seemingly contradictory developments in the Israeli attack on Gaza there lies a general running down of Israeli military momentum.

It’s important to situate all the current headlines into their real context. The fundamental aim of Israel is to create the conditions for massive Palestinian emigration from Gaza. They have made real progress towards this murderous objective. This is the background on which the latest events take place.

Israel losing momentum

Israel used the October 7 attack to create a sense of momentum in its long war against the Palestinians. The reaction to the Hamas operation created a surge of domestic chauvinism, sidelined the huge anti-Netanyahu demonstrations, gave the military a sense of direction and internal cohesion, and garnered considerable international sympathy.

The carnage in Gaza has changed all this. The world has seen at least 38,000 Palestinians killed. And 1.9 million people, out of a total population of 2.2 million, are now refugees. The entire area has been bombed into the stone age. This “genocide in real time” has been on the world’s iPhone and TV screens. Israel has never been more isolated among the capitalist states and their international institutions. The Palestine solidarity demonstrations have been the largest anti-imperialist movement since the youth radicalization of the late 1960s.

The IDF has not defeated Hamas. There are still about 120 hostages being held. A little over 300 Israeli soldiers have been killed. Inside the Green Line, political unity is gone. Charges and countercharges fly daily. A clear rift has opened between the military high command and Netanyahu.

These are the reasons why one can say that Israel’s post-October 7 momentum and drive is running out of steam. This doesn’t mean that we can let down our guard. The Israeli leadership may well try some operation to jump start their campaign against the Palestinian people.

Divisions between Netanyahu and the military

A July 2 New York Times article explains an important new development. The Israeli military high command is now in favor of a truce in Gaza. The article quotes Eyal Hulata, a former national security advisor who is in contact with the high command.

The military is in full support of a hostage deal and a cease-fire. They believe that they can always go back and engage Hamas militarily in the future. They understand that a pause in Gaza makes de-escalation more likely in Lebanon. And they have less munitions, less spare parts, less energy than they did before — so they also think a pause in Gaza gives us more time to prepare in case a bigger war does break out with Hezbollah.

Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari is well known as one of the IDF’s top public spokespeople. It is therefore particularly significant that he recently talked of the impossibility of militarily defeating Hamas. He spoke of the difficulties of defeating a broadly based popular resistance movement. Experience of past colonial wars from Vietnam to Algeria to the North of Ireland certainly bears out his point.

Netanyahu recently denounced the army for the release of al-Shifa Hospital Director Muhammad Abu Salmiya. The Prime Minister complained, “The release of the director of Shifa Hospital is a serious mistake and a moral failure. The place of this man, under whose responsibility our abductees were murdered and held, is in prison,” The fact that the doctor was severely tortured obviously plays no role in Netanyahu’s calculus.

The decision to begin drafting Ultra-Orthodox men, who had previously been exempted, is another cause of dispute between the military and the government. The far-right component of Netanyahu’s coalition government is in total uproar over this move. Taken together all these incidents show a growing chasm between the army and the civilian political leadership. This is obviously a very bad situation for a country at war.

The latest IDF attack on Khan Younis also shows the problems that Israel is facing. Khan Younis had been previously attacked some time ago. The fact that the IDF is forced to return to military operations there shows the precariousness of Israel’s hold on Gaza and the great difficulty of a military victory, underscoring Hagari’s points.

Strategic hamlets

Even after ten months of war, Tel Aviv has no coherent plan for “the day after,” that is a long-term plan for Gaza. The latest plan is simply ludicrous. The Financial Times reports that Israel is contemplating the formation of “bubbles”, termed “humanitarian enclaves” in an extraordinary example of Orwellian double-speak. The FT writes,

Under the scheme, the Israeli military would funnel aid from the nearby Western Erez crossing to vetted local Palestinians, who would distribute the aid and gradually expand their responsibilities to take over civilian governance in the area. Israeli forces, at least for an initial phase, would ensure security. If successful, Israel would then expand the “bubbles” southward to other parts of Gaza, as a means to replace Hamas rule…

This strategy is reminiscent of the “strategic hamlets” that the United States tried so unsuccessfully in Vietnam. The FT further reports, “We already tried this in three different parts of central and north Gaza, including with local clans. They were all either beaten up or killed by Hamas,” said one former senior Israeli official familiar with postwar planning.” Not an auspicious beginning!

Obviously, the Netanyahu government is well aware of the host of problems that this article has described. This is where the sharp increase in saber rattling with Hezbollah comes in. Netanyahu, thinking like a desperate gambler, may well think that a new war in the North may create a head of steam similar to the one that he had after October 7. His hope would be that a new offensive could create the domestic unity and international support that he had at that time. Such a war would be a much bigger undertaking than the Gaza offensive. It would change the whole situation in the Middle East. Whether Netanyahu could force such a war is an open question, but the possibility is a very dangerous one.

US presidential debate

Neither the enormity of Palestinian suffering nor Israel’s difficulties had any impact on the recent US presidential debate. Trump and Biden battled over who was the best defender of Israel’s war. In his general rambling style, Biden said,

In the meantime, what’s happened in Israel? We’re finally – the only thing I’ve denied Israel was 2,000-pound bombs. They don’t work very well in populated areas. They kill a lot of innocent people. We are providing Israel with all the weapons they need and when they need them.

And by the way, I’m the guy that organized the world against Iran when they had a full-blown kind of ballistic – ballistic missile attack on Israel. No one was hurt. No – one Israeli was accidentally killed. And it stopped. We saved Israel.

We are the biggest producer of support for Israel than anyone in the world.

There you have it, be on Israel’s side, but urge some tactical moderation. It’s a good summary of “Genocide Joe’s” whole standpoint during the past ten months. For his part, Trump outlined his position with uncharacteristic honesty: “As far as Israel and Hamas, Israel’s the one that wants to go – he said the only one who wants to keep going is Hamas. Actually, Israel is the one. And you should them [sic] go and let them finish the job.”

Full support for Israel with a little caution and “let them finish the job”. These were the choices on offer at the Atlanta debate.

Support the convention demonstrations

Fortunately, these are not the only choices on offer. A magnificent groundswell of Palestinian solidarity has swept the country. In recent months, the student encampments have been the vanguard of this movement. School is now closed for the summer, so the big tactical question becomes how to maintain the momentum of the movement. Fortunately, at least for those in the Midwest, there is a clear answer. There will be major Palestinian demonstrations at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee and the Democratic Convention in Chicago. Here in Chicago, there will be two major demonstrations. The first will be at noon on Monday, August 19 starting at Union Park, and the second at 5:00 PM on Thursday, August 22, starting at Addams/Medill Park. These demonstrations are a clear and precise focus for the Palestinian movement over the next two months. Marxists are proud to take their place in this movement.