Three weeks before the election, the chatter of the 24-hour news cycle confuses more than it explains. This article will argue that underneath the chatter and against a backdrop of a marked decline in working class living standards and resurgence of COVID-19, Trump and his advisors have formulated an overall strategy to deal with a possible electoral defeat.

Backdrop

Daily life continues to be tough for working class Americans. The real unemployment rate stands at 12.8%. 898,00 workers applied for unemployment insurance last week. Many of the governmental unemployment and eviction safety net provisions are expiring. Only half of the jobs lost due to the epidemic have returned. Economists now talk of “scarring” or permanent changes due to the pandemic. Layoffs, from Disney to the airports, are reported every day. The situation is made starkly clear by the fact that during the pandemic one out of every three families with children in the US has experienced food insecurity (meaning having neither sufficient food for a healthy life nor a means to obtain more food).

It’s now clear that the COVID crisis is far from over. Positivity rates are increasing across the country.  In the heartland, Wisconsin is at 20% and Iowa is now at 18%. Thirty-one states are above the desired 5% mark. The University of Washington sees the death toll reaching an unthinkable 400,000 by the end of January if new containment measures are not put in place.

Trump prepares a plan

The polls put Biden ahead at this point. But as we know, polls can be wrong and things can change. However, one person who does not think they’re wrong is Donald J Trump. A panicked Trump has behaved bizarrely, even by his standards. In the last weeks, we have seen the antics following his hospitalization and attacks on loyal followers such as Barr and Pompeo. Trial balloons such as Hunter Biden’s laptop and “unmasking” have been raised and fizzled as media scandals. But underneath all the froth Trump and, more importantly, his advisors have developed a four-pronged strategy to stay in office following an electoral loss.

Avalanche of Litigation

The first prong is to create legal chaos, an “avalanche of litigation” in the words of the Financial Times. There are a hundred fronts in this campaign. Court challenges to ballot deadlines in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Sabotaging the Post Office. Absurd legal provisions in Texas and Ohio restricting the number of ballot boxes per county to just one, regardless of the county’s size and population. Incessant quibbling over voter witness signatures and the bizarrely named “naked ballots” is likely. (This is the term for local provisions mandating that mail-in ballots must be placed inside two envelopes, not just one). There’s the scandalous news that surfaced recently that the California Republican Party built fifty of its own fake ballot deposit boxes and placed them around the state!

But all of this is just the prelude to the main act. Following the voting, there will be every conceivable legal and procedural challenge. Trump’s aim will be to clog the court system in order to delay and obstruct ballot counting. The aim is to wear down the Democrats and create confusion over the outcome of the election.

Scotus

Assuming Biden’s campaign forces overcome these hurdles, Trump has an insurance plan in place. That’s the Supreme Court and the second prong of his strategy. It’s quite likely that the election will end up in front of the Court. This is where the pliant Amy Coney Barrett can play her designated role and support Trump. This is what explains the rush to complete her confirmation.

Voter Suppression

The first two prongs of Trump’s plan are within the confines of normal bourgeois politics and legality. The last two, not so much. Voter suppression is prong three. This is where the far right enters the picture. There will, of course, be the traditional forms of voter suppression. We can anticipate extraordinarily long lines and mysteriously broken equipment at majority Black polling places. But Trump has promised something more this year.  This is the sending of his supporters into voting sites as “poll watchers”. A good number of these may well be armed. This was the tactic used by the racists in the South during and after the Reconstruction years. Opposing these racists thugs will be an important task.

Far right

The final prong is Trump’s consistent appeals to the far right. Trump needs to keep his base in a constant state of mobilization and excitement. This need is the reason for his constant tweets and exorbitant statements. The exact wording and message of each day’s comments are often bizarre and outlandish, but the pot is kept stirred.

The far right is only one component of Trump’s broader base. But their activism and organization give them a strength greater than their numbers. Trump wishes to use them to help him gain electoral success. He doesn’t want to transform US capitalism, which has served him so well, into an “Aryan Nation.” Trump sees the far right as a force to help him achieve his own ends.

The problem is that the bucking bronco of the far right is not easily controlled. Trump has given his blessing to a movement that has its own dynamic.  That dynamic is certainly capable of producing real violence. Kyle Rittenhouse, Dylann Roof, and the El Paso murderer Patrick Crusius are just some examples. The Wolverine Watchmen group, who planned the kidnapping of the governors of Michigan and Virginia, is the latest product of this movement.

These far right groups are not supported by any important wing of the ruling class. They have nothing like the forces needed to reach their goals. Their grotesque dreams are not matched by real world realities. But they certainly are capable of violent action and should be taken seriously.

Obstacles

So far, this article has focused on what Trump wishes to happen. It’s important to make the point that just because Trump wishes something to occur doesn’t mean that it will occur.  Recent donor studies have shown that the big money has moved to Biden. A recent report said that Biden had received donations from 131 billionaires as opposed to Trump’s 99. A CNN Business article reported that “Biden is crushing Trump in Wall Street campaign donations.” Donations.”

The ruling class still believe that bourgeois democracy is the most effective political system for capital accumulation. The lack of ruling class consensus means that many things could go wrong for Trump. For example, Biden could achieve an early commanding lead, all Trump’s plans might implode, or the more farsighted sections of the ruling class could step in, either privately or publicly.

Mass organization and class independence

Socialists must bring our politics of mass organization and class independence into today’s situation. Here are some recent examples of our approach.

• Mass organization. We have a clear example of the type of movement that we need to combat the far right. That is the October 7^th demonstration outside the trial of the Golden Dawn fascists in Athens. This rally was massive in size, united all the different wings of the movement, and was well-organized and marshalled. This is exactly what’s called for in this country today.

• Class independence. The Howie Hawkins campaign, however symbolic, puts down a marker of opposition to both parties of capital. The recent statement on political independence by a minority of the New Politics Editorial Board was a breath of fresh air in a stale atmosphere of lesser evilism. These are the types of actions that we can build upon.